The focus of the IMK-IFU work is on processing (WP1.1), analysis (WP1.2 & WP6) and provision of the seasonal forecasts to the other project partners (Support WP4). The SEAS5 model forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a basis. These are subjected to a bias correction in WP1.1, which is particularly necessary in lead times of more than one month. For this purpose, the forecasts are brought to a 0.1° grid, a substantially increased resolution. In WP1.2 the approach of a Multivariate Bias Correction is investigated, which has shown an advantage over Quantile Mapping in previous studies. If the performance is satisfactory, the seasonal forecasts for the subsequent steps will be prepared and made available to the project partners. Furthermore, in WP5 our expertise regarding the design of a drought forecasting system will be brought to bear. In WP6, the performance of the forecasts will be investigated using various methods. Particular focus will be on the investigation of drought extremes. In addition to conventional skill scores such as the Brier Skill Score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score or Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves, we will calculate the Potential Economic Value (PEV), which improves the evaluation of the prediction system by expressing the performance in terms of economic savings.
Working Group
 | Prof. Dr. Harald Kunstmann Project PI Deputy Director at KIT IMK-IFU & Director of Center for Climate Resilience, University of Augsburg  harald.kunstmann@kit.edu |
 | Dr. Christof Lorenz Scientific Data Management christof.lorenz@kit.edu |
 | Jan Niklas Weber Scientific Researcher jan.weber@kit.edu |