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Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research Atmospheric Environmental Research (IMK-IFU)

The focus of the IMK-IFU work is on processing (WP1.1), analysis (WP1.2 & WP6) and provision of the seasonal forecasts to the other project partners (Support WP4). The SEAS5 model forecasts provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) are used as a basis. These are subjected to a bias correction in WP1.1, which is particularly necessary in lead times of more than one month. For this purpose, the forecasts are brought to a 0.1° grid, a substantially increased resolution. In WP1.2 the approach of a Multivariate Bias Correction is investigated, which has shown an advantage over Quantile Mapping in previous studies. If the performance is satisfactory, the seasonal forecasts for the subsequent steps will be prepared and made available to the project partners. Furthermore, in WP5 our expertise regarding the design of a drought forecasting system will be brought to bear. In WP6, the performance of the forecasts will be investigated using various methods. Particular focus will be on the investigation of drought extremes. In addition to conventional skill scores such as the Brier Skill Score, the Continuous Ranked Probability Skill Score or Receiver Operating Characteristic Curves, we will calculate the Potential Economic Value (PEV), which improves the evaluation of the prediction system by expressing the performance in terms of economic savings.

Working Group

Prof. Dr. Harald Kunstmann
Project PI
Deputy Director at KIT IMK-IFU & Director of Center for Climate Resilience, University of Augsburg

harald.kunstmann@kit.edu
Dr. Christof Lorenz
Scientific Data Management

christof.lorenz@kit.edu
Jan Niklas Weber
Scientific Researcher

jan.weber@kit.edu

News & Events

  • Web-portal co-design workshop
  • OUTLAST at the Drought Resilience +10 Conference from 30 September to 2 October 2024 in Geneva, Switzerland
  • OUTLAST in African Water Week / Cairo Water Week , October 15-17, 2024
  • OUTLAST in „Week of Environment (Woche der Umwelt) “– June 4-5, 2024, Berlin
  • OUTLAST in EGU 2024, Vienna, Austria

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