The main responsibility of the Hydrology Group at the Goethe University Frankfurt am Main (UF) in OUTLAST is to monitor hydrological drought hazards for human water supply, river ecosystems, and non-cropland land ecosystems and to forecast them for the next months. To do so, we rely upon our long-term experience in developing and applying the global water resources and use model WaterGAP. Driven by an ensemble of global seasonal forecasts of meteorological variables (provided by WP 1), WaterGAP will compute global water flows and storages as well as water withdrawals and consumptive uses. Based on our previous work in the GlobeDrought project we will develop an optimal set of risk-specific drought hazard indicators for human water supply, river ecosystems, and non-cropland land ecosystems, which is suitable to inform end-users on likely drought hazards during the next six months.
Besides the seasonal forecasting of drought hazards for human water supply, river ecosystems, and non-cropland land ecosystems, we will also contribute to i) the operational provisioning of seasonal forecasts, ii) the co-design of the drought forecast modeling system, and iii) the evaluation of the multi-sectoral global drought forecast modeling system. These tasks will be supported by computer scientist Dr. Robert Reinecke, a software design expert, and Dr. Fabian Kneier, who is experienced in the co-design of a web portal on freshwater-related climate change hazards.